Attitude Adjustment Time

In an effort to stem mass panic and people flinging themselves into the Scioto River over the recent turn of events on the ice, I am going to eschew my normal game review/game preview approach for today, and focus on some observations and some facts (the two are not necessarily synonymous, though I like to think they are).

First let's get two groups of bad news out of the way:

Pittsburgh -- We dropped the ball last night, no question. Dubie was not an NHL caliber goalie last night, despite making a couple of nice saves after the horse was already out of the barn. We did lots of good things, particularly in the last 17 minutes of the first, and most of the third, but too little, too late.

Illness & Injury Update -- Per Puck-Rakers, Mason felt horrible after the morning skate, so he will not go tonight. Dubielewicz has the flu (or should I say upper body illness?), Commodore has food poisoning, courtesy of an unnamed Pittsburgh establishment on Friday night, and Voracek is suffering from effects of undisclosed malady sustained in last night's game. Methot also suffering from flu. All are either questionable or doubtful for tonight's game. Dan LaCosta starts in goal tonight against the Sharks. Dubie will be available for back up duty.

OK, that's done. Now, for some better news:

Standings & Such -- Despite the three game slide, the Jackets remain 2 points out of the 7th spot, and 4 points out of 5th. Some of the teams behind have narrowed the gap, and we give away 1 game to a few teams, but we also still hold games in hand over Phoenix, who is tied with us, and Anaheim, now in 6th. Most of our rivals have tough games tonight as well, so even a loss to SJ does not dramatically alter the picture. Remember the 60% rule -- win 3 out of 5 for the final 35 and we are easily in the playoffs. We were 2 - 3 for the first 5, so came up a little short, but after tonight we start a string of very winnable games, including Tuesday night's love fest vs. Colorado. Most of our rivals have at least 2 or 3 games left vs. the Sharks, while we are done with them after tonight.

Power Play -- We were only 1 for 4 vs. Pittsburgh, but it is starting to look like an NHL caliber special team. Beautiful pass from Juice to Tyutin, and we got a number of shots on goal. As we gain confidence, the pace of the passing will pick up, resulting in even better numbers. Nice to see.

Finally, some observations:

New Blood -- While I am not of the school that believes you can simply bring a new body in and all will be well, the unusual circumstances we face would dictate that Howson act sooner than later. Dubielewicz is not going to be an NHL caliber goaltender this year. He could prove to be a worthy backup in time, but adjusting from a year off from the NHL small ice world is not something we have time for right now. Legace cleared waivers for St. Louis, so conventional wisdom must be that he can be had for less than the waiver price. Same likely with Curtis Sandford. Time to do 3 deals -- backup goalie who can be credible while Mason recovers, wing/center, right handed shot defenseman. No need to wait for the deadline -- we need the move now, due both to health status and need for psychological boost.

Chemistry -- What I hoped would not happen, but unfortunately has, is that the returning players have come back hitting on fewer than all cylinders, and have been dispersed across the lines, disrupting the chemistry we had going during their recuperative periods. This, in turn, has resulted in more intra-game line shifting by Hitch, which I think creates further disruption. Chimera has admitted that he can't go full tilt yet, and that is a huge part of his game. Torres is still working on stamina, and isn't consistent. Peca, though not hurt, has not been able to consistently put numbers on the board, and Modin is looking awfully slow. Let's put Peca, Chimera and Torres on a line, control their minutes, and let them get their confidence back. Boll, Modin and Dorsett/Murray on the other checking line, with Nash, Malhotra, Huselius and Voracek, Williams, Umberger as the scoring lines, and stick with them for the whole game.

With The Good Comes The Bad -- There are tons of positives to Hitch-Hockey, and also tons of positives in having so many good, young players on the squad. The flip side is that the Jackets are not yet a steeled group psychologically. With the whole system keyed from the back end, our play is often dependent on who is in goal The team played noticeably differently in front of Norrena than in front of Leclaire, and this year played much more confidently in front of Mason than Leclaire. Knowing that you have that solid backbone enables players to play looser, knowing that if they should make a mistake, the goalie has their back. When we get tentative, our grip on the stick gets tighter, we aren't as decisive in transition. Dubie does not inspire confidence, and the results were palpable last night. Tonight, with the Sharks in town and LaCosta in net, Hitch has to tell the guys to go for it, like we did in the NW Canada trip. Not many expect us to win this one, so why not go for it.

Veteran Time -- In a similar vein, this team has been carried by a bunch of youngsters for most of the season. Even our Captain cannot be considered a grizzled veteran. Commodore and Tyutin have done great jobs, and Nash and Huselius have chalked up numbers, but we have not seen the consistent performance from Peca and Modin, in particular. Time for these guys to strap it on and cash in some chances, at the same time re-energizing our kids.

Real Fans Don't Whine -- Reading the posts elsewhere, certain segments of CBJ Nation are already in full retreat and have abandoned all hope. Please . . . We may or may not end up in the playoffs, and the injury problems have gotten silly in terms of magnitude, but let's act like fans here. I feel like buying a copy of "Professional Sports For Dummies" and having copies air-dropped from helicopters over Central Ohio. We as fans pay our money, devote our time and root for wins. That's great. All we can expect is that we get an organization that does it's best, from the front office to the 4th line grinder. While in the past it has been fashionable to dump on Dougie Mac or criticize the heart and character of the team, I am not buying it this year. The guys have played their hearts out, with the rare lapse. Lots of youngsters, lots of new blood, so stuff happens. But to be where they are right now, given what they have gone through this season, is a credit to the players, the coaches and the leadership. I am really weary of the lemmings preparing to jump off the cliff every time we hit a bad stretch. Same group that leads the "Fire Tressel" brigade when OSU doesn't win the national championship.

OK, as I climb down from the soapbox, let's just go out and support the boys tonight against the Sharks, and prepare for what is going to be a good, exciting stretch run. Go Jackets!

No Pittsburgh Celebration Tonight!

I hope that the Pittsburgh fans got plenty of celebrating done last week after the Steelers' Super Bowl victory, as the Jackets will be out to be ensure no celebrations take place at their expense tonight.

When you mention the Pens, the first thoughts always go to Crosby and Malkin, and with good reason. Malkin leads the league with 79 points, and Crosby is second with 69. Scratch the surface, however, and you might see that the Penguins perhaps do not merit superhero status., and are quite comparable to the CBJ in many respects.


Both clubs are presently 10th in their respective conferences -- Pittsburgh with 55 points in 53 games, Columbus with 53 points in 51 games. Pittsburgh ranks 6th in the league in scoring, compared with the CBJ's ranking of 21. Beyond that, the tale changes significantly. Pittsburgh is 26th in the NHL in Goals Against (Columbus 12). They are 21st on the PK, while the Jackets are 17th. Both teams are power-play challenged, with Pittsburgh ranking 23rd and the Jackets 30th in the NHL.


Pittsburgh comes in having lost 4 of their last 6, though winning the last 2 at home. Not much of a home ice advantage -- 13-11-2 at home, vs. 12-12-3 on the road. With a large contingent from the Jacket Backers en route to Mellon Arena tonight, it might not seem like a road game for the Jackets!


As you can imagine, when your top two skaters have 148 points between them, not a lot left for the rest of the team. Sykora, Satan and Staal have 99 points between the three of them. Intriguing +/- stats -- while Malkin is a relatively gaudy +17, Crosby is only +4, Sykora +2, Satan -1 and Staal -5.


All this adds up to a recipe the Jackets have seen before. Eastern Conference team with speed and scoring studs that must be neutralized. Sounds like Washington, Montreal, Buffalo??? Get beyond Crosby and Malkin, you have a big dropoff. We need to keep these guys at the perimeters, jam up the neutral zone and not let Malkin and Crosby create space. In other words, Hitch-Hockey! You know that they will be testing Dubie in net, so we need to make sure to create lanes, hit hard, and clear the puck quickly.

In net, Fleury can be had. He has a 2.85 GAA and .910 save percentage, but has been known to give up some big numbers when pressured. Defense is not the hallmark of the Penguins, so we need to take advantage of that and cash in our chances.

For the Jackets, Dubielewicz is definitely in the white hot light of the spotlight tonight. With Curtis Sandford languishing in the minors for Vancouver, and Manny Legace being put on waivers by St. Louis today, there will be a very short leash. GM Scott may pull the trigger on a goalie anyway, since we have so few in the organization. Methot is out, and Backman gets the call. We need him to come up big tonight.

Here are the keys to a CBJ victory:

Hitch Hockey -- Everything starts in our zone, from hard checking to crisp passes and clearing. Maintain composure when Malkin and Crosby are on the ice.

Legs, Legs, Legs -- Not talking about the cheerleaders here. When we play poorly, it is when we stop moving our feet, at both ends of the ice. This leads to odd man rushes, stupid penalties, and lack of traffic in the crease. As Puck-Rakers and Hitch observed today, Crosby and Malkin stay at full speed for their entire shifts. We don't want to try to outskate them, but we can position ourselves properly, hit hard and keep the feet moving for 60 minutes.

Offensive KISS -- When we have the puck, we need to keep it simple. It seems that as we have developed some chemistry and confidence in our back end support, we suddenly believe we are hockey's version of the Harlem Globetrotters -- 17 passes per shot. I am all for good passes with a purpose, but shoot the darn puck!!! Put lots of rubber on Fleury early and he will melt like a butter cow in August.

Heads Up! -- Let's play smart hockey, with our heads up, looking for both threats and opportunities. Eliminate the threats, take advantage of the opportunities, and a W is in our grasp. Can't let the threat of Crosby and Malkin put us on our heels. They are most dangerous when they get a turnover at either blue line. Get the puck deep, strong forecheck and stand 'em up at our blue line, and we will have more odd man chances than Pittsburgh. Not even Malkin and Crosby can play every shift . . .

Go Jackets!!!!

The Flu Bug and Other Ramblings

Lots of random stuff today, so here goes:

Glad you're well, now go away -- after recovering from his recent injury, star prospect Nikita Filatov was victimized by the flu. His present for recovering? A trip to Syracuse . . . Ahh, it's a brutal business. Seriously, this has long been expected, and hopefully Nik will get some more seasoning and bulk up a bit.

More Flu--Kristian Huselius missed practice with the flu, and Mark Methot will not make the trip to Pittsburgh, also courtesy of the flu bug, according to Puck-Rakers.

Let The Trade Speculation Begin -- The Dispatch kicked off the final month countdown to the trade deadline, with it's morning piece on who might be on Howson's radar. Some expected names (Antropov, Weight, Tkachuk), some intriguing inclusions (Lombardi, Kelly, Reasoner), and some curious omissions (Vermette, Kubina). I still think a deal is going to happen sooner than later, and suspect that tomorrow night is Wade Dubielewicz's first and last audition as a backup. If he does well, he stays and we focus on a forward and maybe right hand shot defenseman. If he gets smoked, expect a goalie play, such as Curtis Sandford from Vancouver, in addition to a forward.

God Bless Games In Hand -- The standings are pretty bizarre to contemplate right now, with 4 points separating 5th from 11th. While the CBJ give up a game each to Edmonton and Minnesota, and 2 to Dallas, they hold 2 in hand over Phoenix, and after tonight will hold 4 big games in hand over Anaheim. Visnovsky for the Oilers has just gone on the IR, the Canucks are struggling, and everyone except Dallas seems to be hurting to one extent or another right now. It will be a wild rush to the finish.

Tomorrow we'll do a preview of the Penguins game and do a little more on the trade front.

Go Jackets!!

Unfinished Business

Despite dominating large swaths of the game, the CBJ dropped another one to their new nemesis -- the St. Louis Blues. Don't know what it is about this team, but we have a lot of trouble with these guys, and objectively there is no reason for it.

Tonight's loss was all about not finishing, both on offense and in goal. We played a solid first period, scoring a power play goal on our first opportunity, then Mase drops a puck he always holds onto, and it is tied. Next, we dominate possession in the zone, get a lot of traffic in front, get the puck to the point, and Tyutin buries it -- textbook stuff. A few minutes later, a muffed assignment leave the net wide open, and again we are tied. We show discipline, good puck handling, no penalties, and we end the first period tied.

Second period we lost a bit of our edge, and the puck spent more time in our zone than we would like to see. Mase made a few nice saves on the power play. 1 second later, however, he just misses one. Our seats are on a line behind Mason and the shooter on that goal, and I could not believe he missed it. He was square, no traffic in front, just a whiff. We outshoot St. Louis 15 - 2 in the final period, but can't get one to go. With Mason pulled, we got the faceoff, maintained possession and got just what we wanted -- Huselius with the puck right in front, and he passes off to the right side, wide of the intended mark . . . A misplay by Williams up high results in an empty netter, and the rest is history,.

Along the way we had more "almost" goals than I can count -- some nice saves by Chris Mason, but at least 3 or 4 posts, including a shorthanded breakaway by Nash, and some wildly bouncing pucks that went the wrong way. A nice open ice hit by Hejda against Backes -- some measure of payback for his hit on Huselius back in St. Louis.

+/- for tonight:

+ Possession -- For large parts of the game we absolutely dominated puck possession in their zone. (But see the minus for finishing below)

+ Defense\PK -- For the most part, we played a sound defensive game, with one lapse that cost us a goal. Great kill of the 4 minute high sticking penalty. We minimized their PP chances and kept the #8 power play off the board.

+ Players -- Tyutin had a very strong game, as did Commodore and Russell. Methot showed a lot of energy, as did Modin. The Chimera, Williams, Voracek line needs to work together, but showed signs of being a strong combination. Umberger put himself in the right position and was aggressive all night.

--Finishing -- We have gotten in the habit of trying to make things look too pretty. Huselius needs to shoot that puck at the end. One too many passes has become our trademark. Take a page from Russell, Tyutin and Commodore -- fire it at the net and good things happen. We need a more consistent presence in front of the net. Mase needs to grab the puck and hold on. 2 of the 3 were softies tonight. He deserved a better fate, but he would want both of those back.

--Players -- Sorry, but our #1 line did not have it tongiht. A combined minus 8 on the night, and Huselius had zero shots. Sorry, but with his talent, he needs to put the puck on the net more.


No need to panic, as a win on Friday still keeps us on par with the 60% rule -- win 3 out of 5 from the break on in and we go to the playoffs. Mase is clearly not at 100%, so we need to be able to cover for him. Curtis Sandford??? We have a great chance on Friday to go into Pittsburgh and take advantage of a struggling Penguins team. After two loses, we should be plenty fired up.

Bottom line -- forget the style points--finish your chances. Go Jackets!

St. Louis Preview

The St. Louis Blues come to town tonight, fresh on the heels of a SO loss against Detroit, 4 - 3. Get used to the Blues, as this is the first of 5 meetings between now and the end of the season, with 3 of them being at home.

The Blues have been bitten hard by the injury bug this year, somethingt CBJ fans can relate to. Despite their position at the bottom of the Western Conference standings, they handed the Jackets a 5-2 loss at the Scottrade Center in the middle of our extended road trip. They are 5-3-2 in their last 10 games, and backup Chris Mason has pitched 2 shutouts in that stretch, including a recent 4 - 0 blanking of the Philadelphia Flyers.

The Jackets, 6-3-1 over their last 10, are busy erasing the memory of a 7 - 3 home loss to the Stars, a game where everything that could go wrong did go wrong. These are going to happen, and it probably came at a good time, as St. Louis will come in with an edgy, up tempo approach to try to catch us off guard. After the Dallas fiasco, Hitch will make sure that doesn't happen.

St. Louis is 18th in NHL in Goals per Game, while the CBJ are close behind in 21st. The differences come in defense and special teams. The Jackets are 10th in the league in Goals Against, while the Blues are near the bottom, in 26th.

The Blues rely on special teams to a large extent. Over 1/3 of their goals (50/141) have come on the PP, which ranks 8th in the league. The two squads have comparable penalty killing units, with St. Louis ranking 15th in the league and the Jackets 18th.

Boyes has carried the bulk of the offensive load this year, with 20 goals and 21 assists for 41 points. Tkachuk boasts 32 points, as does Berglund. Backes chips in and serves as the prime agitator. Chris Mason has been hot in goal of late, and has a GAA of 2.72 and .912 save percentage for the year. He was called in to replace Manny Legace in last night's game, after Legace gave up 3 goals on 8 shots in the 2nd period, and after the game called himself "the worst player in the NHL."

Mason is likely to go for them tonight, and Hitch has confirmed that our own Mason will be in the net as well. Klesla also likely to be back on the ice for us, paired with Russell. Both Tollefson and Backman will sit. Fortunately, the Chimera experiment at center is over. He returns to the wing opposite Voracek tonight, centered by Jason Williams. That line could really light it up! Alexandre Picard also cleared waivers and was assigned to Syracuse.

Keys For The Game:

Two Way Intensity - We need to get back to complete Hitch-Hockey, with the forwards getting back and closing the gaps in our own zone. Hit hard, pass precisely, and move the puck decisively out of the zone. In our end, put lots of pucks on net and cash in on our chances. No missed one timers!

Patience & Composure -- St. Louis will come out hard, despite it being the back end of a back-to-back, trying to disrupt us the way Dallas did. Backes will agitate and they will try to leverage the revenge factor for the Huselius hit in St. Louis to get us to lose our cool and take unnecessary penalties. We can't fall into that trap. There will be plenty of opportunities to deliver some good, clean, vicious hits to Backes tonight -- but keep the eye on the prize. Staying out of the box will deprive them of one of their key weapons.

Traffic In Front -- The last couple of games, our forwards have been staying away from the blue paint. The lone exception was Voracek, who got the only goal against Ottawa. We can get some pucks past the St. Louis goaltenders, but need more traffic in front, and the ability to get the stick on the rebounds.

Pick Up Mason -- Stevie has carried the team a lot this year, so let's return the favor tonight. Keep Tkachuk, Boyes & Co. on the perimeter, open up lanes for vision, and clear the puck from in front. Don't wait for the puck to come to you in our own zone!!!

Should be a chippy game, and I expect the boys will be loaded for bear, proving that the Dallas debacle was just a fluke. Big win ahead! Go Jackets!

Tuesday Tidbits

Mono Watch -- The hockey media are having equal measures of fun and concern with the disclosure that Steve Mason is suffering from mono. The following from Charlie Teljeur at THN:

Although he’s been cleared by doctors (obviously Columbus season ticket holders) to keep playing, Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Steve Mason is battling mononucleosis. I’d actually like to see him play through this entire crisis, get the team into the playoffs and lead the Blue Jackets to the Stanley Cup. Then, as payback, Mason should be the first to drink champagne out of the cherished mug. I can hear his teammates now: “No, it’s OK, I’m really not that thirsty.”

60% Rule -- With all of the calculating and figuring and hand-wringing and general carrying on about playoff prospects (including my own), one simple way to look at it is the 60% rule. As of the All Star Break, the CBJ had 35 games left, and had 22 wins, plus 5 OTL. Look at the remaining games as 7 groups of 5 games. Win 3 of 5 in each group, and you have no worries. That would add 21 wins for 43 wins and 91 points, assuming we had straight losses in every other game. That will make the playoffs in the West. Right now, we have won 2 of the first three in the first group of 5, so just need to split between St. Louis and Pittsburg to be on target. See, simple isn't it?

Ottawa -- With the Senators jettisoning their coach this week, what impact will that have on trade prospects? The Canadian media are circling like sharks, with the majority opining that GM Bryan Murray should have been axed before Craig Hartsburg. The Senators are a salary cap mess, public opinion already says to trash the season and rebuild, and ownership pressure on the GM has to be building. Sounds like the recipe for some bargains, and Howson is one of the best bargain shoppers around. Stay tuned.

St. Louis preview coming shortly.

Playoff Prospects -- Where Things Stand Now, What The Schedule Holds

OK, since every pundit on the planet is weighing in on who is going to make the playoffs and who isn't, despite the fact that everyone has between 30 and 34 games left in the season, I thought I might take my own shot at it, using some numbers to support my case.

First, let's look at where things would stand at year end in the West, based solely on every team playing at the same pace they have to date, as I have done in the past. Numbers are valid through last night.

1. San Jose 132 points
2. Detroit 119 points
3. Calgary 109 points
4. Chicago 106 points
5. Dallas 91 points
6. Minnesota 89 points
7. Edmonton 89 points
8. Columbus 87 points
9. Anaheim 87 points
10. Vancouver 85 points
11. Phoenix 85 points
12. Los Angeles 80 points
13. Nashville 79 points
14. Colorado 77 points
15. St. Louis 75 points

Fair enough -- looks pretty good for the Jackets, and as expected, places 5 through 11 are pretty much a crapshoot. Now, to make it more interesting, I decided to look hard at each team's remaining schedule (except for the top 4 in the West, who would have to have mass cardiac arrest to not make the playoffs). I looked at every team in the NHL, and identified three groups -- the elite teams, the downtrodden, and the contenders. Using a method familiar to blackjack players dabbling in card counting, I gave each team in the elite category a +1 value, the downtrodden a -1 and everyone else a zero. I also gave every home game a -0.5 value, and each road game a +0.5 value, to reflect home advantage. It is then a simple matter to take all of the remaining games, apply the values, and determine who has the easiest and hardest schedules (the lower the number the easier the schedule.) Here are the results for the 11 Western Conference teams vying for the final 4 playoff slots:

Vancouver 2
Columbus 3
Phoenix 4.5
Dallas 5
Edmonton 5.5
Colorado 6
Nashville 7.5
Anaheim 8
Minnesota 10.5
St. Louis 11
Los Angeles 14

For reference, the elite teams are: San Jose, Detroit, Chicago, Calgary, Boston, New Jersey, NY Rangers, Philadephia, Buffalo, Montreal. Washington The downtrodden are: NY Islanders, Ottawa, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis. Everyone else is in the middle category.

Combining the two, here are my picks right now for the #5 through #8 spots in the West:

5. Dallas
6. Columbus
7. Edmonton
8. Phoenix

Phoenix and Vancouver actually end up in a dead heat, but I went with my gut and picked Phoenix. Reasonble minds can differ. . . .

Argue away, but I respectfully submit that my method is as good as any! Go Jackets!