Sunday, April 5, 2009

Updated Stretch Performance

By popular demand, the following is the updated list of performance over the course of the Dirty Dozen last 12 of the season:
  • Anaheim 8 - 2 - 0 16/20 possible points .800 points percentage
  • Chicago 6 - 2 - 0 12/16 possible points .750 points percentage
  • St. Louis 6 - 2 - 1 13/18 possible points .722 points percentage
  • Columbus 4 - 1 - 4 12/18 possible points .667 points percentage
  • Nashville 4 - 2 - 3 11/18 possible points .611 points percentage
  • Minnesota 4 - 4 - 1 9/18 possible points .500 points percentage
  • Vancouver 4 - 3- 1 9/16 possible points .563 points percentage
  • Calgary 3 -5 - 0 6/16 possible points .375 points percentage
  • Edmonton 3 -6 - 0 6/18 possible points .333 points percentage
  • Dallas 2 - 5 - 2 6/18 possible points .333 points percentage
  • LA 2 - 5 - 1 5/16 possible points .313 points percentage
A pretty graphic example of how those single points add up!

The Frozen Water Torture . . .

Somebody needs to ask Scott Howson if the player contracts have incentive clauses that kick in if we can delay clinching the playoffs as long as possible.

Tonight's 1 - 0 OT loss to the Chicago Blackhawks was a playoff caliber affair, a defensive struggle highlighted by the goaltending of Steve Mason and Nikolai Khabibulin. The two teams combined for only 45 shots over 63 minutes, 10 seconds of action, much of which took place along the boards and in the neutral zone.  

While this was a tight-checking affair, it lacked the nastiness and brutality of, say, a Nashville game.

This was all speed and skill, positioning and strategy.  A lightning chess match more than a wrestling match.  Playing their second overtime game in under 24 hours, the Jackets started a step behind the Blackhawks, who are now in the playoffs for the first time in seven years, and looking to secure home ice advantage for Round 1.  Once they got their legs, they more than kept up with the frantic pace at both ends of the ice.  Particularly in the defensive zone, the Jackets were tenacious, and kept the highly talented Blackhawks at bay.  When an untimely turnover or defensive lapse occured, there was Mason to shut the door. He was amazing all night, stopping some point blank opportunities, and enjoying the clearing support of his defenders.  Even Versteeg's eventual game winner caught a lot of Mason, and Versteeg himself characterized it as "lucky."

Khabibulin, almost old enough to be Mason's father, was as crafty and resourceful as ever, and had to put a smile on Quenville's face as they proceed into the playoffs.  Huet and Khabibulin have had their moments of intrigue this year, and if this signals a resurgence by Khabibulin, Chicago will be a force in the playoffs.  He made an absolutely sick diving, shaft-of-the-stick save on Vermette in the 2nd, and squelched Russell's breakaway bid just before Versteeg netted the game winner.

While the Jackets were not quite "on" in their passing and execution in the offensive zone, definitely missing the skill of Huselius, they were tenacious and had their chances.  This was just one of those nights where a little fatigue and a few breaks made the difference.

I know that these are critical games coming down the stretch, but I wonder whether this would have been a prime opportunity to give Filatov and his skill an opportunity?  Hitch knows all, sees all, but still . . . 

The usual +/- would not mean much tonight, as this was a taut, well-played game with a few lapses, a little gap in execution, but tons of desire, a boisterous crowd and 100% effort.  That's all we can ask for.  One note:  How can we only have 15,947 in the house at this point in the proceedings?? C'mon people!!!

Since the Bluejackets seem intent on doing this playoff thing 1 point at a time, here is the latest playoff scoop:
  • With another point (the 12th time in the last 14 games we have earned at least a point), we now have 90 (for the first time in club history), with 3 left to play, still in 
  • Anaheim lost to San Jose tonight, so remains in 7th with 88 points.  They have only 2 games left, so we have a game in hand on them.
  • Edmonton and Minnesota, with 83 points each and 3 games to play, have been eliminated from catching or passing the CBJ, as they each have a maximum point total of 89.
  • Three teams remain with the possibility to catch the Jackets -- Anaheim, Nashville and St. Louis.  All have a maximum possible point total of 92.  Bottom line is this -- 1 win by the CBJ or 1 loss by Nashville, and we have clinched a playoff spot.  1 win puts us at 92, and we hold the tiebreaker over Nashville by virtue of our OT point last night.  Even if both Anaheim and St. Louis win out, we would beat out Nashville on the tiebreaker.  
  • A record of 1 -1 -1 or better over the last 3 guarantees us 6th place, as we would have 93 points, and Nashville, St. Louis and Anaheim have a maximum total of 92.  
A couple of days of rest coming up, which we can hopefully use to heal the wounds and gird up for the final sprint.  First clinching opportunity comes on Tuesday night, when Chicago visits Nashville and St. Louis visits Phoenix.  Anaheim doesn't play again until Friday, when they host Dallas, then travel to Phoenix for the finale on Saturday.  We resume @ Chicago on Wednesday, catching them on the back end of the back-to-back, followed by @ St. Louis Friday and Minnesota here on Saturday.  Any way you shake it, I am predicting an all time record crowd for this regular season finale!!]

Go Jackets!!




Sunday Morning Sanity Check

With 8 days left in the regular season, time to take stock of where things stand in this insane playoff race. The Tracker at the right has been updated through the games of last night, so you can view some of this there. But to summarize:
  • CBJ hold 6th place with 89 points. We have 40 wins, a 1 point lead over 7th place Anaheim and 3 point leads over 8th and 9th place Nashville and St. Louis.
  • We have a game in hand over Anaheim, St. Louis and Nashville
  • A win tonight formally eliminates Edmonton from the ranks of those who could pass us, and forces Minnesota, St. Louis and Nashville to win out, while we lose the remainder, to pass us.
  • Any regulation loss by Nashville in the remaining three games means we need only have 1 OTL to shut Nashville out from passing us.
  • We can shut St. Louis out from passing us by beating them in Game 81, regardless of what happens in other games.

Bottom line is that we are in control of our own destiny and some pretty special things have to happen to knock us out of the playoffs. Here are the records of all of the contending teams during the Dirty Dozen -- the final 12 games of the regular season.

  • Anaheim 8 -1 - 0 16/18 possible points .889 points percentage
  • St. Louis 6 - 2 - 1 13/18 possible points .722 points percentage
  • Chicago 5 - 2 - 0 10/14 possible points .714 points percentage
  • Columbus 4 - 1 - 3 11/16 possible points .688 points percentage
  • Nashville 4 - 2 - 3 11/18 possible points .611 points percentage
  • Minnesota 4 - 3- 1 9/16 possible points .563 points percentage
  • Vancouver 4 - 3- 1 9/16 possible points .563 points percentage
  • Calgary 3 -5 - 0 6/16 possible points .375 points percentage
  • Edmonton 3 -6 - 0 6/18 possible points .333 points percentage
  • Dallas 2 - 5 - 2 6/18 possible points .333 points percentage
  • LA 2 - 5 - 1 5/16 possible points .313 points percentage

To put this in perspective, if the CBJ had played at this pace all year, they would have 112 points for the season. It also shows how tough it is to make up points down the stretch. St. Louis is on a tear, yet if the CBJ win tonight, they will have made up zero points over the Jackets in the stretch. Under the same circumstances, i.e. a Jackets win tonight, Nashville will have lost 2 points to the Jackets, despite playing over .600 in the Dirty Dozen. Anaheim is playing in another celestial sphere right now, and you can only tip your hat to them and say "well done."

Jackets are playing some excellent hockey at the moment, and are showing the kind of grit you need to earn tough points down the stretch. Jackets earned 20 points in March -- slaughtering the old record. It is a nerve-wracking experience, to be sure, but the boys are getting it done.

This promises to be a fun week in Central Ohio. Fat lady ain't singing, but she is practicing her scales! Go Jackets!

Saturday, April 4, 2009

What A Battle!

Who did not know that this one was going to be a war??  With Nashville having its back very much against the wall after a loss last night in Chicago, they were in a "must win" situation to keep their playoff hopes realistically alive.

Every write-up leading up to this game focused on the first 10 minutes, and the need for the CBJ to avoid getting blown out by the Nashville intensity.  Well, the Jackets accomplished that mission in spades.  In fact, they dominated the first period and the first half of the second.  They were swarming, playing solid defense, and taking advantage of overly aggressive Nashville defensemen to create scoring opportunities.  Nifty goals by Nash and Novotny should have provided a 2 - 0 cushion, but Peca's unfortunate deflection of a Nashville shot made the cushion only 2 - 1. However, we were outplaying Nashville at both ends, and when Nash scored again off a great feed form Williams 6 minutes into the 2nd, it seemed that the Somet Center Curse had been fully exorcized.  Of course, this is Nashville, in Nashville, so we know that was a silly thought.

Another screwy bounce, this time off of Methot's skate, enabled the Predators to narrow the gap to 1, with Jacket-killer Arnott getting credit for the goal.  A few minutes later, the Preds knotted the game with their only power play goal of the season against the Jackets.  After a tentative first half of the 3rd period by both clubs, Bonk knocked in a puck that bounced around the crease for what seemed like an eternity. 4 -3 Nashville, and it looked like the CBJ fortunes were once again going to take a hit in the Music City.  Again, this is not the CBJ team you have been accustomed to watching.  The boys found another gear, and a gorgeous feed from Vermette to Williams, and the ensuing sniper shot, tied it up, and 5 minutes later guaranteed a point.  Not as easy as it sounds, however, as Tyutin got called for a 4 minute high sticking penalty that was imposed only after the play and some extended conversation among the officials.  Nobody raised an arm at the time of the infraction.

Nonetheless, the Jackets dispatched the remaining time in regulation, and the balance of the penalty in OT, and maintained consistent pressure thereafter.  Credit Mase for an outstanding save on Suter coming in all by himself near the end of regulation.  

The shootout was what you would expect for these goaltenders.  Nash got an unlucky bounce off the crossbar, and Rinne handled Williams and Novotny. (Sorry, Hitch -- don't get the Novotny over Vermette choice for the SO).  Mason dispatched Fiddler and sullivan, but Koistinen made a nice forehand move to get Mase down, and roofed the backhand for the winner.  

Here are the +/- for the night:

+  Early Energy -- We came out strong and skilled, and really had Nashville scrambling early.  We took advantage of their aggressiveness, while limiting their scoring chances.  Although shots were relatively even early on, we kept them to the perimeter.

+ Offense -- We showed some real skill at the offensive end (subject to the hibernation minus given below).  Two goals to the back door, one in regulation and one on power play.  If we can start doing that kind of thing consistently, we will be very dangerous in the playoffs. Nash, Vermette, Voracek, Williams, Chimera, Umberger all showed great energy in the offensive zone.  Great resilience getting the tying goal in the last 5 minutes.

+ Special Teams -- True, we gave up a power play goal, but we killed 6 others in solid fashion, including that potentially lethal double minor to Tyutin with 1:48 left in regulation.  We only had 3 power play chances, but cashed in on one of those in beautiful fashion.

-- Hibernation -- When we went ahead 3 - 1, we pulled our heads inside the shells and tried to play prevent defense.  2 SOG in the 2nd period is all the proof you need.  We stopped hitting, took no shots, got sloppy in giving away the puck, and made no takeaways.  No wonder that we lost all of those statistics for the game.  Perhaps natural to have a let down after getting so geared up for the first 10 minutes, but this is the playoff chase, guys!!  

--Details -- 1 goal indavertently deflected into your own goal is unfortuate.  2 is sloppy. Taking 7 penalties in a game as important as this is inexcusable, no matter what you think about the officiating. (Hey, we won 2 Toronto reviews and got a double minor when the damage was done by our guy, not theirs).  Also need to do better than 50% in the faceoff circle.  Need to clear those pucks out of the crease crisply and quickly.

--Injury (?) -- Huselius left right away, then returned, then went away again.  Have looked, but not found any updates as yet.  Hopefully nothing major.

Not the win we wanted, but the single point is extremely important.  First of all, it gives us the second tiebreake, should we end up with the same record as Nashville.  Secondly, it lets us keep 6th over the almost surreal charge put on by Anaheim (8-1-0 during the Dirty Dozen).  Finally, it reduces our magic numbers toward a clinch.  Right now, our magic number is 0.5 vs. Edmonton, 1.5 vs. Minnesota and Nashville, 2 vs. St. Louis, and 3 vs. Anaheim.  Can't technically clinch on Sunday, but Tuesday should be the day, assuming a win over the Blackhawks.  

Hitch will have the boys ready to vault over that 90 point mark, and get primed for a playoff celebration that will be soon to follow.  Go Jackets!!

Friday, April 3, 2009

Thanks, Blackhawks!!!

Thanks go out to the Chicago Blackhawks, who bested Nashville tonight, 3 - 1, clinching a playoff spot for Chicago, who moves up to 4th in the West with 95 points. Calgary and Vancouver are battling for the Northwest Division title, but the loser of that battle now sits in 5th, and would lose the home ice advantage to the Blackhawks.

Several impacts of this game on the CBJ:
  • Nashville will be an angry, desperate team tomorrow. However, after a tough one tonight they will hopefully be a little tired, while the CBJ spent today in Nashville.
  • A CBJ win over Nashville tomorrow will eliminate Edmonton from passing the Jackets, and will also eliminate Nashville from passing us. Nashville would have the theoretical ability to tie us with 90 points, but would lose on the second tiebreaker.
  • A win over Nashville means that we would be in a position to clinch a playoff spot on Sunday with a win over Chicago, or a loss by Minnesota @ Detroit, or an OTL by both us and Minnesota.

The key tomorrow for the Jackets is to come out hard, withstand the early rush by Nashville, and use our defense and puck possession to wear down the Predators. A nice crowd of JacketBackers already down there, and noting that the Nashville folks aren't terrible enthused about the Predators. Go figure . . .

Go Jackets!

Thursday, April 2, 2009

A Welcome Break . . .

The current 3 day break in the schedule comes at a great time, both for the club and the fans.  After an exhausting stretch of games, the club gets a chance to catch a breath, give Mason a breather, and decompress from the daily pressure of the playoff chase.  Not only that, but the fans get a bit of a breather, and can step back from the edge of the cliff.

St. Louis gets a wild win over Detroit tonight, 5 - 4, with Backes getting 4 of the Blues' tallies.  Conklin was in goal for the Wings, and now how dumb does the Detroit organization look for not picking up a goalie at the trade deadline?   Osgood and Conkline are not going to get Detroit out of the first round, at the current rate.  St. Louis is now back in 7th place, pending the outcome of the Anaheim/Vancouver game, which is currently tied at 5 in the 3rd.  

Edmonton lost a tough one tonight, 2 -1 against San Jose, reducing the CBJ magic number for Edmonton to 1.  If Vancouver can beat Anaheim, the MN against Anaheim goes down to 2.5.  

A Chicago win over Nashville on Friday, combined with a Calgary win over Minnesota puts us in the position where a win over Nashville on Saturday would effectively clinch for us.  Technically, the clinch would come with at least an OTL on Sunday vs. Chicago, but as a practical matter, it is over. 

If it makes everyone feel better, consider that the NHL media and related pundits are not concerned about us being in the playoffs.  They may not understand the paranoia that 7 years of missing the playoffs breeds, but I trust their judgment. 

More tidbits tomorrow . . .   Go Jackets! 

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Filatov Coming

According to a Bluejackets Press Release, and Puck-Rakers, Nikita Filatov has been recalled from the Syracuse Crunch. GM Scott Howson indicates that the club wants Filatov to experience the big club training and atmosphere during the playoff push. The extent to which he might play is uncertain right now.