The key signings of Sammy Pahlsson and Mathieu Garon were unfortunately overshadowed last night with the dislcosure that Rick Nash was "disappointed" with the package the Blue Jackets put out as their initial offer. The responses have ranged from disdain for Nash's comments and severely taking him to taks, to roasting Howson over the coals for insulting our captain and not doing what is necessary to close out a deal. Both reactions are off base here, so before we get to the signings, let's look at the Nash situation more closely.Up to now, the Nash courtship had been a pure love fest. Nash, his agent and Howson were all making wonderfully upbeat comments and indicating how much they all respected and loved each other, the team, the coaches, the fans and anybody else in the neighborhood. They were one step short of sending out a communique calling for World Peace . . . That is great, and is probably an indication of where everybody is in their hearts, but until yesterday, it was all theoretical. Now, numbers and years have to be matched with team goals, individual aspirations and economic realities. That, folks, is an entirely different reality. Not necessarily a bad one, but a reality nonetheless.First, we do not know what offer the CBJ put out there, other than the reports that it was 5 years. Nash probably sees himself as an $8 million player, aso anything short of $40 million over the 5 years was probably a disappointment, particularly when he sees the Rangers paying Gaborik an average of $7.5 million. (Rick, it's the Rangers, OK? You can't use the Rangers or the Knicks as a standard here) The CBJ were probably closer to $35 million, looking at the Sedins signing for $6.1, Hossa for an average of $5.23 and Iginla making about $7 million right now. Sure, Hossa's contract is front-loaded, but overall something between $7 mill and $7.5 mill would appear to be in the ballpark. The essential problem here is that there are too many options, and presenting any one option makes it look like you have excluded others. Nash is 25, so would appear to be ripe for a 10 year deal. However, if you present that, Nash might feel you are trying to pin him down for too long. It's not only about salary, it is all about cap space. The cap will go down significantly next year, in all likelihood, so the Jackets are trying to stay close now. The might well be thinking about going lower now, and balooning toward the end. Going longer also creates flexibility. Ohlund's contract with Tampa is 7 years, $24.5 million. However, $22.5 million gets paid in the first 5 years. So, for that period, even though he will receive $4.5 million, the cap hit is only $3.5 million. That extra million can get you a third or fourth line player. So, don't let any perceived gap in numbers stress you out. I suspect that the sides are far closer than we think -- they just need to agree on the length and the cap hit features. Turning to the intangibles, keep in mind that these types of negotiations are as ritualistic as you can get. The language of contract negotiation is almost as formalistic as diplomacy. When the local ambassador says that "We object to the actions of in the strongest possible terms", they are basically saying that the missles are on the way. Same thing applies here. Look closely at what Nash said. Virtually everything was couched in an "if" statement, and he used "we" a lot. Example:"If this doesn’t happen in the next week, and we can’t hit a number where we’re both satisfied and we both feel it’s fair … if they want me that bad, they’ll get it done"He said that things did not line up as he expected, and that if a deal isn't done, he wouldn't have a problem getting signed next summer. Well, duhhh . . . hardly a threat folks, just a statement of fact.Nash had to say something in this ritualistic dance, just as a reminder to the Blue Jackets that he might provide a loyalty discount, but still wants market value. Portzline is right -- Nash holds the cards here -- and he needed to publicly remind the Jackets of that fact. However, this was as gentle a reminder a possible. Look at what he did not say -- he did not throw out ultimatums, call the offer insulting or otherwise throw gas on the fire. To the contrary, his language was soft, direct and he even threw some tidbits out there to indicate where they are. ". . .in the next week" is a pretty clear indication that he wants to get something done soon, and get back to playing hockey. He is not taking his toys and going home. Look at what his agent said last night, if you need any further confirmation:“This is part of the process. . . We’ve begun, and we’ll continue to work through and reach an agreement.”Doesn't sound threatening to me . . . Remember, it is difficult to throw the first offer out in any negotiation, particularly when options abound. Resnick will be providing a counter-offer today, and then we will have the boundaries of the playing field. Barring a demand for an $11 million dollar contract, things are likely to move fairly quickly at that point. All a part of the game, folks.By the way, Howson gets an A- for the Pahlsson and Garon signings yesterday. They obviously had Pahlsson targeted, and got their man. Garon is a better goalie in the clutch than his numbers would indicate, and I have had him as my backup goalie for the Jackets on NHL '09 for awhile now. ;-) Seriously, though -- these are good solid moves, and the minus comes for possibly overpaying for Pahlsson a bit. A very good start to the off-season however, with the draft and Day 1 of free agency. More to come tonight.
July 1, and a young man's heart turns to thoughts of . . . lots and lots of cash.2 hours and 13 minutes until the annual feeding frenzy known as free agency formally begins, but indications are that this will be a much leaner meal than in years past. Economic conditions, the prospect of a drastically reduced salary cap next year, and several teams with substantial cap difficulties all point to a measured and muted free agency season. Need confirmation? First, the NBA Free Agent season started at midnight, and you can hear the crickets chirping in the silence. Second, Calgary successfully inked a deal with Jay Bouwmeester for 5 years, $33.4 million. While not chump change, this was not the stratospheric number that many were expecting/fearing. Compare it to Brian Campbell's 8 year, $56.8 million deal with Chicago, and it seems downright reasonable. He is signing for just about what Wayne Redden signed for with the Rangers last year (and ask NY fans how that turned out . . . ) While you can debate (with some justification) whether the talent for Jay Bo equals the hype, he was the #2 overall draft choice behind our own Rick Nash, and has the perception of being a premier player. When it comes to contracts, perception is reality. The fact that this one came in within the bounds of reason is a sign that the dollars will not be flowing large come Noon.This climate is perfect for our own Scott Howson, who is the epitome of patience. Make no mistake, this free agent season will be frustrating for the fans, as we may not see much early action. However, the opportunities abound for some bargains from the teams that have overspent. When all is said and done, either via free agency or trade, I expect that we will see five new faces in the lineup come the start of the season -- 2 defenseman, 1 center, 1 winger and a new backup goalie. My gut tells me that Manny is gone, as the perception gap is just too great, and another club will be enticed by his faceoff record. I have a hunch that Jason Williams might find his way back into the fold, however. He is a good shooter (which we need), and his stock is not sufficiently high, compared to the other forwards available, to attract a huge dollar deal. I think we may see two existing faces move on via trade, but I am now way out on a limb. Expect a backup goalie early in the process.The Nash Watch -- Contrary to the aspirations of every Toronto Maple Leafs fan, the early indications are that Rick will be staying put. Howson was in Toronto yesterday, doing a big presentation for Nash and his agent on the direction of the club and his role going forward. Everyone is saying all of the right things, and the Jay Boumeester deal did not launch the price out of the ballpark. Nash likely has two offers sitting on his table right now, one shorter term (3 -5 year) one long term (10 year or so). Howson seems willing to pony up the cash, and Rick loves being the big fish in the relatively small pond. Nash is not a glitzy, grab the limelight guy, and the microscope of Toronto has little lure for him. Besides, the organization in Toronto is a train wreck right now. Not the situation you want to dive into. Number 61 stays. Phoenix Phollies -- Jerry Reinsdorf, owner of both the Chicago Bulls and Chicago White Sox, has put up a $148 million offer to buy the Phoenix Coyotes and keep them in Glendale. Gary Bettman and the NHL are backing this play, and are falling all over themselves in praising Reinsdorf and his ability to turn the franchise around. Not so fast . . . First, Reinsdorf is banking on Glendale renegotiating the lease -- something they have refused to do thus far, even after the NHL put big pressure on them. Secondly, and most importantly, Jerry's offer is $64.5 million short of the Balsillie offer. Keep in mind that whatever the NHL likes, this is a bankruptcy court proceeding, and Judge Baum's primary duty is to look after the best interests of the creditors. Sure, the City of Glendale is a prime creditor, but the Reinsdorf offer is taking a lot of cash off the table. Expect pressure to up the ante significantly to get court approval.Draft Overview -- Scott Howson showed his acument and flexibility during this one, ultimately gaining a defenseman that nobody figured would be available to the CBJ without them trading up substantially from their original slot at number 16. Who knows how things will ultimately turn out, but the crop he brought in looks solid. The pundits give him full marks for the draft, and I have no reason to disagree.The Draft Party at Nationwide was well attended and fun. Great job in having Umberger, Boll and Mason around and so accessible. The formal autograph lines were massive, but that is to be expected. Mike Todd did a nice job keeping things flowing, and the locker room tours, etc. were a nice touch. A few irritations to note for future events: 1) Put in at least one more food area on the floor, or open up a couple of the concession stands. Lines were ridiculous until late in the game, and many folks left early for that reason. 2) The broadcast coordination was reallly poor. The broadcasters did a great job, but the cutting back and forth to the live feed from Montreal was awful, and folks missed some key moments. 3)Why did we show the first period of Game 4 vs. Detroit on the big screen over and over? It looped back at least twice. Why not show the third period, which was the most exciting period in Blue Jackets history? USA Hockey -- Thumbs down for snubbing R.J. Umberger, who has shown that he is a big game player over the past two years. He may yet get invited, as injury or lack of interest dwindle the ranks, but this was a bad miss for USA Hockey.Stay tuned, more to come.
